8 NOV 2026 — Vietnam's National Assembly on Saturday, 7 November, adopted a socio-economic plan for 2027 with a GDP growth goal of at least 10 per cent, the government's news portal reported. Lawmakers set the same floor for 2026, and the economy has not reached it yet. Growth for the first nine months stands at 9.01 per cent, so hitting 10 per cent for the full year would take a fourth quarter of roughly 12.5 per cent, on our arithmetic.
The 2027 resolution ties the growth goal to macroeconomic stability and inflation control. It names science, technology, innovation and digital transformation as the areas where the government wants "substantive breakthroughs". The portal's report gives no other numeric targets for next year.
How 2026 measured against its target
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2026 target set
Lawmakers approve the 2026 plan: growth of at least 10 per cent, GDP per capita of US$5,400 to US$5,500 and average consumer-price inflation of around 4.5 per cent.
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2025 closes at 8.02%
The statistics office estimates last year's growth at 8.02 per cent. Its fourth quarter, at 8.46 per cent, was the fastest fourth quarter in the office's 2011-2025 series.
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A five-year floor
The new 16th National Assembly adopts its 2026-2030 plan, aiming for average annual growth of at least 10 per cent and GDP per capita of US$8,500 by 2030.
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8.15% and 8.81%
As the office stated them in October. The second-quarter figure is a revision, mostly from fuller counts of construction and of large foreign-invested manufacturers.
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Third quarter at 9.95%
The office's quarterly release (in Vietnamese) puts nine-month growth at 9.01 per cent. Industry and construction grew 12.50 per cent in the quarter, services 9.54 per cent.
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Goods trade passes US$1tn
January-October goods trade reaches US$1,010.55bn, the first time it has crossed US$1tn.
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2027 target set
At least 10 per cent, again.
The fourth-quarter arithmetic
The releases we read give growth rates, not quarterly output levels, so the required figure has to be backed out. Last year the office reported nine-month growth of 7.85 per cent, full-year growth of 8.02 per cent and a fourth quarter of 8.46 per cent. Those three numbers put the final quarter at about 28 per cent of a year's output, since (8.02 − 7.85) ÷ (8.46 − 7.85) is roughly 0.28.
Apply that to 2026. If the first 72 per cent of output has grown 9.01 per cent, the last 28 per cent must grow by about (10 − 0.72 × 9.01) ÷ 0.28 for the year to average 10. That comes to 12.5 per cent. The published inputs are rounded to two decimal places, which moves the answer anywhere between about 12.4 and 12.8 per cent, and some of them are first estimates the office has since revised. Weighting the four quarters equally would put the requirement nearer 13 per cent.
Either way, that is a large step. It sits about 2.6 points above the third quarter's 9.95 per cent, the fastest quarter of 2026 so far, and about four points above last year's 8.46 per cent, the best fourth quarter the office has recorded since 2011.
A trade deficit that checks out
The portal's report on the 2027 plan, citing the Ministry of Industry and Trade, put January-October trade at US$1.01tn and exports at US$499bn. That leaves imports larger than exports. The office's October report confirms it: exports of US$499.24bn, imports of US$511.31bn and a goods deficit of US$12.07bn, set against a surplus of US$19.49bn in the same ten months of 2025.
By our sum that is a swing of US$31.56bn. Imports grew 37.4 per cent while exports grew 27.5 per cent. The office lists electronics, computers and components among the goods with the largest import surpluses, at US$65.84bn. China supplied US$212.46bn of imports, about 42 per cent of the total, and the United States took US$159.40bn of exports, about 32 per cent.
The monthly direction has turned. The office said October posted a surplus of US$7.31bn, the second month in a row with a surplus this year.
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