Solar panel savings and payback calculator — enter your system size in kWp and see annual generation, electricity-bill savings, the payback year on a 25-year curve, and the CO₂ avoided, with tropical peak-sun-hours and ASEAN tariffs for Singapore, Malaysia and beyond. Runs in your browser.

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Solar Savings Calculator (SG & MY)

/ kWh
/ kWh
Payback period
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Cumulative savings vs system cost (25 years)
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How to Use the Solar Panel Calculator

Set your system size

Drag the kWp slider to the system you are considering. The tool uses your region’s peak-sun-hours to estimate annual generation.

Enter cost and tariff

Add the installed system cost and your electricity tariff (or pick a region preset) so savings are valued correctly.

Read the payback curve

The chart plots cumulative savings against the system cost; where they cross is your payback year, marked on the line.

Test assumptions

Adjust tariff inflation to see best- and worst-case payback, and read the lifetime savings and CO₂ avoided.

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Solar Generation, Savings and Payback

Rooftop solar is one of the few household investments whose return you can estimate quite well in advance, because the physics is simple and the main variables are knowable. The starting point is your system size in kilowatts-peak — the panels’ rated output under standard sunlight. To turn that into real energy you multiply by the number of peak-sun-hours your location receives each day, by 365 days, and by a performance ratio of around 0.78 that quietly absorbs all the real-world losses: heat that makes panels slightly less efficient, dust on the glass, inverter conversion losses and resistance in the wiring. The tropics are well suited to solar: this calculator's presets run from 4.0 peak-sun-hours a day for Singapore to 4.8 for Thailand, so a modest system generates a substantial number of kilowatt-hours every year. Those presets are planning estimates, not measured site data — enter your own figure if you have one. As a check, the World Bank and ESMAP’s Global Solar Atlas (produced by Solargis) gives a long-term average daily global horizontal irradiation of about 4.4 kWh/m² over Singapore, 4.5 over Kuala Lumpur, 4.5 over Jakarta, 4.7 over Manila and 4.9 over Bangkok. The presets here sit at or a little below those published averages, which is the conservative direction for a payback estimate: a real roof is tilted, shaded, dusty and partly obstructed in ways a satellite grid cell is not.

Those kilowatt-hours are worth money because each one you generate is one you do not buy from the grid. The calculator values your generation at your electricity tariff and projects it forward over the 25-year output warranty most quality panels carry. Two slow forces shape that projection: electricity tariffs tend to rise over time, which makes each future kilowatt-hour more valuable, while the panels themselves degrade by about half a percent a year, generating slightly less as they age. The first effect usually dominates the second, which is why the cumulative-savings curve bends upward over the decades. Plotting that curve against the upfront system cost reveals the moment the two meet — the payback point — after which every further year of generation is profit.

Seeing payback as a crossover on a chart, rather than a single number, makes the investment intuitive and lets you stress-test it. Nudge the tariff-inflation assumption and watch the payback year move; increase the system size and watch both the savings and the cost scale together. Alongside the money, the tool tracks the carbon you avoid: every grid kilowatt-hour you displace saves the emissions that would have been produced to generate it, and over 25 years that adds up to tonnes of CO₂, which the tool translates into relatable equivalents. None of this is a binding quote — your roof’s orientation and shading, the specific equipment, and your exact tariff scheme all matter — but it is a sound, transparent estimate computed entirely in your browser, and a good way to decide whether to take the next step and get a site survey.

Solar payback is not a single date but a crossing point — and rising tariffs pull that crossing steadily closer.

Panels lose half a per cent a year, and heat costs you more than age

01

Generation ≈ kWp × peak-sun-hours × 365 × performance ratio.

02

A peak sun hour = 1,000 W/m² of sunlight for an hour.

03

This calculator uses 4.0–4.8 peak-sun-hours across its ASEAN presets.

04

Performance ratio (~0.78) covers heat, dust and wiring losses.

05

Panels degrade only about 0.5% a year.

06

Most quality panels carry a 25-year output warranty.

07

Payback shortens as electricity tariffs rise.

08

Exported solar is usually credited below the import rate.

09

Heat actually reduces panel efficiency slightly.

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This calculator runs in your browser — nothing is uploaded.

📅 Research current as of 13 Sep 2026 · Sources: EMA/SP Group regulated tariff and Simplified Credit Treatment (Singapore); Suruhanjaya Tenaga tariff schedule and Solar ATAP (Malaysia); EMA and Energy Commission grid emission factors; World Bank/ESMAP Global Solar Atlas (Solargis) for the irradiation cross-check; IEC 61724-1 for the performance ratio; Jordan and Kurtz, Prog. Photovolt. 2013;21(1):12-29, for degradation
Tariffs and unit prices change frequently — confirm the current rate with your provider before relying on these figures.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • The calculator multiplies your system size in kilowatts-peak (kWp) by the local peak-sun-hours per day, by 365 days, and by a performance ratio of about 0.78 that accounts for real-world losses from heat, dust, inverter inefficiency and wiring. The result is the kilowatt-hours your system should produce in a typical year.
  • A peak sun hour is one hour of sunlight at an intensity of 1,000 watts per square metre — the standard test condition for panels. A location with “4 peak sun hours” receives, over the whole day, the same total energy as four hours at that full intensity. The presets in this calculator run from 4.0 peak sun hours for Singapore to 4.8 for Thailand. They are planning estimates rather than measured site data. The usual free reference, the World Bank and ESMAP’s Global Solar Atlas, puts the long-term average nearer 4.4 kWh/m² a day over Singapore and 4.9 over Bangkok, so these presets are the conservative end of the published range. If you have a figure for your own roof — from an installer or a monitoring portal — enter it instead.
  • kWp, or kilowatts-peak, is the rated output of the panels under standard test conditions and is how solar systems are sized. A typical home system might be 3–10 kWp depending on roof space and consumption. Enter your planned size and the tool scales generation, savings and cost accordingly.
  • The tool builds a year-by-year curve of cumulative bill savings and finds the year it crosses your system cost — that crossover is the payback point, marked on the chart. Savings grow each year with assumed tariff inflation and shrink very slightly with panel degradation. Each kilowatt-hour is valued as a blend of the import tariff and your export credit, weighted by how much you use on site, and you can add an inverter replacement in year 12 so the curve pays for it. Every one of those factors is shown in the transparency panel beneath the result.
  • Because the savings are valued at whatever electricity costs in future. If tariffs rise, every kilowatt-hour your panels produce is worth more, so the payback arrives sooner and lifetime savings grow. The inflation slider lets you test optimistic and conservative assumptions.
  • Yes. It reduces output by 0.5% a year, the median long-term degradation rate found by Jordan and Kurtz in their 2013 review of nearly 2,000 published field measurements (Progress in Photovoltaics 21(1):12-29), so the later years of the 25-year projection generate slightly less than the first. Hot, humid climates tend to sit above the median, so treat 0.5% as a central estimate rather than a floor. It is a small effect beside tariff inflation, but it is in the arithmetic.
  • This matters more than almost anything else, and the answer changed recently. A kilowatt-hour you use as you generate it saves you the full import tariff; one you export earns whatever your scheme pays, and neither of our two main markets pays the import rate. In Singapore the Simplified Credit Treatment credits exports at the regulated tariff minus grid charges, so an exported unit is worth roughly 73 per cent of a self-consumed one. In Malaysia, net energy metering ended in June 2025 and Solar ATAP replaced it on 1 January 2026; domestic exports are credited at the Energy Charge component alone — about 27 sen against an import cost of about 44 sen, or roughly 61 per cent. Set the self-consumption slider to the share you actually use on site, and the tool blends the two rates for you.
  • Every kilowatt-hour your panels generate displaces a kilowatt-hour from the grid, avoiding the carbon that would have been emitted to produce it. The tool multiplies your generation by your grid’s carbon intensity and shows the annual and 25-year totals, translated into relatable equivalents.
  • No. They are a sound estimate for planning and comparison. Actual results depend on your roof orientation and shading, the specific equipment, local weather, installation quality and your real tariff and scheme. Use it to judge whether solar makes sense for you, then get a site-specific quote.
  • The performance ratio (PR), defined in IEC 61724-1, is the energy a system actually delivers divided by what its nameplate rating would deliver under the sunlight it received — every real-world loss in one number: module temperature, soiling, wiring, mismatch and inverter conversion. Well-built systems in temperate climates commonly report PR values around 0.80–0.85; in the tropics module temperatures run higher, which pushes PR down. The 0.78 used here is a planning default at the conservative end of that range, not a measurement of any particular roof, and the peak-sun-hour presets are likewise planning figures — enter your own PSH and PR if an installer or a monitoring portal has given you measured values.

Method & sources

How it computes

Annual generation = system size in kWp × the local peak-sun-hours a day × 365 × a performance ratio of 0.78. Each generated kilowatt-hour is valued as a blend of the import tariff for the share used on site and the local export credit for the rest, projected over 25 years with your tariff-inflation assumption and 0.5 per cent a year panel degradation; payback is the year cumulative savings cross the installed system cost. CO₂ avoided = generation × the local grid emission factor.

What this tool implements

  • Performance ratio as defined in IEC 61724-1 — energy actually delivered divided by what the nameplate rating would deliver under the irradiation received, absorbing module temperature, soiling, wiring, mismatch and inverter losses into one number. The 0.78 default sits at the conservative end of the 0.78–0.85 commonly reported, chosen because tropical module temperatures depress the ratio.
  • Degradation of 0.5 per cent a year is the median long-term rate found across nearly 2,000 published field measurements by Jordan and Kurtz; hot, humid climates sit above that median, so it is a central estimate rather than a floor, and the page says so.
  • Exported energy is not credited at the import rate in either main market, and the arithmetic reflects that rather than assuming one-for-one. Singapore's Simplified Credit Treatment pays the regulated tariff less grid charges — about 25.4 against 34.78 cents including GST, roughly 73 per cent. Malaysia's Solar ATAP, which replaced net energy metering on 1 January 2026, credits domestic exports at the Energy Charge component alone — 27.03 against 44.43 sen, roughly 61 per cent.
  • Peak-sun-hour presets of 4.0 (Singapore) to 4.8 (Thailand) are planning estimates, not measured site data. The World Bank and ESMAP Global Solar Atlas long-term averages for the same cities run 4.4 (Singapore), 4.5 (Kuala Lumpur), 4.5 (Jakarta), 4.7 (Manila) and 4.9 (Bangkok), so the presets are at or below the published averages — the conservative direction for a payback estimate, and now stated on the page.

Sources

  • Energy Market Authority of Singapore / SP Group. Electricity Tariff Revision for the Period 1 July to 30 September 2026 — regulated tariff 31.91 cents/kWh before GST, 34.78 cents/kWh with GST. https://www.spgroup.com.sg/about-us/media-resources/news-and-medi…
  • Suruhanjaya Tenaga (Energy Commission of Malaysia). Jadual Tarif Elektrik, gazetted domestic schedule in force 1 July 2025 – 31 December 2027 — 44.43 sen/kWh below 1,500 kWh (energy 27.03 + capacity 4.55 + network 12.85 sen), the energy component being what Solar ATAP credits for domestic exports from 1 January 2026.
  • World Bank Group / ESMAP, Global Solar Atlas (data by Solargis) — long-term average daily global horizontal irradiation used as the cross-check on the peak-sun-hour presets. https://globalsolaratlas.info/
  • Jordan DC, Kurtz SR. Photovoltaic degradation rates — an analytical review. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 2013;21(1):12-29. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.1182
  • International Electrotechnical Commission. IEC 61724-1, Photovoltaic system performance — Part 1: Monitoring — the definition of performance ratio implemented here.

What can make this go out of date

  • Singapore's regulated tariff is revised QUARTERLY by the Energy Market Authority and SP Group. The 34.78 cents/kWh including GST implemented here is the rate for 1 July – 30 September 2026 and is superseded on 1 October 2026 — the reader-facing freshness window was shortened from six months to three in this pass for exactly that reason.
  • The Malaysian gazetted domestic tariff runs 1 July 2025 – 31 December 2027, and the Solar ATAP export credit follows its Energy Charge component; grid emission factors are republished annually by the Energy Market Authority and the Energy Commission. None of these is refetched at runtime.
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